[Feb/2023 | Finance] Quality Of Earning

Summary

  • Quality of Earning把财报分析解构成了两个部分 – 1. 管理层与股东的conflict of interest, 2. 把公司看成一个工厂，那么有些数字是Earning更好的leading indicator

  • 管理层与股东的Conflict of interest源于管理层的奖金来自于每年/季度的Earning, 那么如何夸大Earning或者通过big bath来夸大一个季度的盈利损失为之后持续盈利积累势能就是管理者拿大奖金的”捷径”. 1%的shareholder可以那个公司的报税使用的Earning, 公开的Earning与报税Earning差异是值得研究的.
  • 而财报中很多数字都有夸大其词 vs. 保守估计版本. 比如是不是加速depreciation, 油气勘探的时候是否把开销作为capitalize提高earning, 是不是把一些非常规盈利考虑成常规盈利.
  • 而从工厂模式看财报，书中提到值得注意的指标有: 1. 从不营销的快餐店开始营销了，那么他们的earning应该会提高; 2. 应收款特别多: 一个卖车公司为了提高销售给了很多低门槛的Car Loan; 3. 最终产品库存越来越多: 不是一个好兆头. 而原材料库存越来越多，这说明公司对销售有信心开始加大生产.
 

 

  • Chap-1 别信专家/股评师
    • 夸大其评 – grab attention
    • conflict of interest: 分析师赖以生存的长期行业关系/往往利益相关
  • Chap-2 别信auditor
    • 四种评级: subject-to/except-for是比较有趣的
    • 利益相关 – auditor行业竞争激烈 – 价格战
  • Chap-3 Shareholder letter
    • PR expert – make it look fancy来期待提高股价
    • 往往是冰山一角/管中窥豹
    • 股票 – international harvestor – 1980s亏损假装没事的案例，怎么说:
      • 长期战略一片大好 – 实际上Earning 很差
      • 债务下降 – 实际上preferred stock上升
    • The substance behind projection – 管理层对未来形势的预估是不是言之有物的
    • Might be good: frankly discussion problems & solutions
  • Chap-4 Differential disclosure
    • Inconsistent info between diff docs – i.e. shareholder letter vs. actual numbers, previous year projection and actual realization. 
    • Comparative study of shareholder letter for credibility
    • 洗大澡比千刀凌迟好(from wallstreet perspective)
  • Chap-5 Non-operating / Non-recurring income
    • NO/NR
    • ITT purchase hartford (Casualty Insurance)
      • CEO可以通过买卖保险公司持仓制造earning
    • 洗大澡 – 新的管理人通过上任巨亏来获得盈利势能
  • Chap-6 Decrease / Increase Expense
    • 减税/减息等一次性
    • Depreciation
    • 快餐相比full-service餐厅更对于原料价格敏感
    • 加大营销(原本从不开始营销的公司开始营销了) – 预计Earning上升
  • Chap-7 Shareholder reporting vs. Tax reporting
    • Need 1% shareholder to request tax book
    • Tax earning vs. Financial Earning
    • 不交税的大公司
      • IRS 税表 – General Electric 用子公司GECC不交税
    • 油气勘探的两种会计方式 –  full-cost / successful
      • full-cost(capitalized expense)会显得income高
  • Chap-8 Account receivable & Inventories
    • Big account receivable + big inventory – 公司不好
    • Account receivable – 经济差难收款 / liberal credit (i.e. car loan etc.)
    • 日本车厂当时比美国车厂优势在于inventory management
    • 应收款 / inventory 精确预测Earning
      • 原材料库存 vs. 最终产品库存
      • 原材料上升最终产品下降是好事，反之不好
  • Chap-9 Debt & Cashflow
    • 1980s 公司债
      • 私有化公司 – 债台高筑
    • Benjamin Graham认为公司负债35%是极限
    • KKR并购视角
  • Chap-10 Dividends
    • Why pay dividends – stock-owners are transient
    • Establish price floor – obtain cheaper financing – i.e. utility company
    • Author distrust company w\ generous dividend policy
      • Because it might be “dead end” – no money spent on R&D
    • Peter Drucker – all expense three categories
      • Past : interest
      • Present : wage & material
      • Future : R&D
    • Buy back stock is better than dividend
    • Need to be skeptical of motivation if dividend/earning is high
    • Double taxed
  • Chap-11 Accounting Changes
    • Liberal vs. Conservative accounting practice – 劣币驱逐良币
    • 反对Academic / EMH
    • Conservative to liberal depreciation (i.e. IBM in 1980s)
  • Chap-12 Big Bath
    • Definition – write off lots of asset and paint a much more bleak picture

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